How 'On the Psychology of Military Incompetence' Predicted Hegseth's Iran Debacle

August 1, 2026 - 08:08

A dusty volume from the 1980s is suddenly getting a lot of attention. "On the Psychology of Military Incompetence" by Norman Dixon was written long before the current Pentagon leadership took office. Yet its core argument about how small-minded men in big positions cause disasters feels painfully relevant to the recent Iran fiasco.

Dixon, a British psychologist and former army officer, did not write about politics. He wrote about the human mind. His central claim was that incompetent commanders are not usually stupid. They are often insecure, rigid, and obsessed with appearing strong. That obsession leads them to ignore bad news, surround themselves with yes-men, and double down on failed plans rather than admit a mistake.

The current situation with Iran fits that pattern. The decision to strike a high-value target without a clear endgame, followed by confused messaging and a quick retreat, shows a classic failure of foresight. The people in charge seemed more worried about looking tough than about the actual consequences. They did not ask the hard questions. They did not plan for the response. They just acted, then scrambled.

Dixon would recognize the type. He called it the "petty man" - someone who equates rank with personal worth, who sees any criticism as a personal attack, and who values loyalty over competence. That kind of leader creates a culture where no one dares to say the plan is flawed. And when the plan fails, the blame goes everywhere except upward.

The book is not a crystal ball. It does not mention Iran or Hegseth by name. But its lessons are timeless. Incompetence is not a lack of skill. It is a failure of character, a refusal to see the world as it is. Until that changes, the same mistakes will keep happening, no matter who sits in the chair.